The Centre for Resilience of Critical Infrastructure

Flood Risk

What does flood risk really mean? What does it mean in understanding and in practice? The forum compared Canadian with international practice and explore potential ways of affecting positive municipal change in this field. Three actors of community resilience - municipal corporation,  community housing and commercial real estate - were included in the discussion, represented by the three presenters and their roles in flood risk.

Speakers:

Nick Martyn (UofT) - Flood Risk Assessment - Rethought

Flooding is one of the most frequently occurring natural disasters that together with droughts and windstorms constitute about 90 percent of the world’s most disastrous events. Until the advent of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfires flood events ranked first among the costliest natural disasters in Canada. Coastal environments are particularly susceptible to flooding, but overland floods in the rest of Canada are equally destructive and costly. The increasing intensity and frequency of flood producing weather events combine to threaten Canadian municipal and regional economies as happened during the 2013 Bow River Flood in Southern Alberta and the Toronto inundation on July 7^th/8^th of the same year, necessitating both structural and non-structural responses.

The problem facing Municipal leaders and technical staff is how, in the context of constrained public resources, to identify and prioritize the right responses. Current Flood Risk Assessment largely depends on the calculation of flood event return periods as a method of computing the likelihood of inundation. But, as the 2013 events in Calgary and Toronto demonstrate, the trends that inform return period calculations are no longer consistent, consequently risk assessments based on those calculations are increasingly unreliable predictors. If Municipal leaders are to protect their communities and the value they represent, a different method is needed.

Recognizing this, NRCAN and PS Canada have commissioned research at CRCI (University of Toronto) into alternative methods for Flood Risk Assessment with a view to providing guidance for Municipalities as part of the Federal Flood Mapping Series. This presentation will discuss the findings of the research to date together with a potential framework for analysis based in spatially referenced Graph Theory models. The talk will propose the selection and application of a “most likely, most dangerous” design flood scenario to a city control framework graph model by which to calculate the “pathways of exposure to risk,” and “cascades of consequence” across the municipal vitae system of systems (Built, Natural, Human and virtual).

Nick Martyn is the founder and CEO of RiskLogik. RiskLogik provides network based risk analysis tools and advice to help businesses and public sector organizations sustain operations under all conditions. Nick founded RiskLogik in response to the growing frequency, intensity and impact of hazards to business operations and critical infrastructure, and the consequential impact on sustainable development and civil society world-wide. The motivation to found RiskLogik emerged from his experience in Afghanistan developing the Afghan National Development Strategy where key leaders were faced with dramatic and complex decisions to make but had little evidence to help them reduce the complexity to actionable alternatives they could have confidence in. In 2009 he founded the Masters of Business Administration for International Development (MBA4ID) in the Sprott School at Carleton University. Nick is a retired Canadian Army Officer with 30 year’s service, and five years spent in Afghanistan. He is a graduate of the Royal Military College of Canada and the Canadian Forces Command and Staff College and currently a graduate student in Civil Engineering, focusing on infrastructure resilience at the University of Toronto.

Daniel Filippi (Intact) - Extreme Weather & Flooding: Practical Approaches to Limiting Risk

Daniel advances the climate adaptation file through the management and development of various programs and projects at the Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation (ICCA) out of the University of Waterloo. His current research focus is on the various emerging technologies, initiatives and actionable approaches available to help mitigate widespread urban flooding events, which are quickly becoming the new norm across Canada.

In his role at the Intact Centre, Daniel focuses on applying high-level industry best practices, initiatives, standards and programs to develop on the ground campaigns and projects. His work highlights the need for increased understanding, practice and adoption of climate adaptive approaches for homeowners, municipal governments and businesses. These projects include, (1) Increasing homeowner adoption of flood resilience in previously flood-affected urban areas across Canada; (2) Developing online flood training for brokers, developers, and real estate agents to help them inform their clients about the increased levels of risk due to urban flooding; and (3) Leading development and instruction of the Home Flood Risk Assessment Training (HFRAT) course. The course focuses on flood prevention, mitigation, risk management and preventative practices at the lot level by teaching current industry practitioners (home inspectors, insurance brokers, emergency managers, technologists, etc.) how to perform visual assessments using a nationally-recognized and applicable online tool.

The presentation slides are available as a pdf here.

Prior to joining the Intact Centre, Daniel worked at Seneca College, the Ministry of Environment, Toronto and Region Conservation Authority and Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority. Daniel holds a B.Sc in Environmental Science from the University of Guelph and a Master of Science in Biophysical Interactions from the University of Toronto.

Bernadeta Surowiec (CVC) - Smart Blue Roof Systems:  An Innovative Approach for Flood and Drought Resilience and Adaptation

There are significant limitations to the amount of stormwater which can be cost-effectively managed within existing urban areas and exclusively on public lands. As an adaptive and innovative stormwater management approach to flood and drought conditions, smart blue roofs address rooftop stormwater runoff at the source using real-time IoT technology. By implementing new and retrofitting existing flat roofs with smart blue roof systems, the capacity and resiliency of the municipal stormwater system increases, there is potential to offset potable water usage as well as the potential to cool a building through evaporative cooling. Bernadeta will introduce smart blue roof systems as an effective solution to climate change adaptation in urban areas.

The slides to her talk can be found here.

At Credit Valley Conservation (CVC), Bernadeta Surowiec is an Integrated Water Management Specialist responsible for implementing and performance monitoring green infrastructure, low impact development and pollution prevention projects. Prior to her time at CVC, Bernadeta obtained her Masters of Engineering as well as Masters of Environmental Science from the University of Toronto.

May 9, 2019, 5.30pm to 9pm at the University of Toronto Faculty Club

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